AgriCharts Market Commentary


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Corn

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts steady to 2 1/4 cents higher. Traders are still keeping an eye on the Brazilian crop, and the dryness they’re experiencing. Most states in the Corn Belt are at or above their respective planting progress averages, with IA lagging normal pace by 2%. States along the Northern parts of the Corn Belt are behind normal pace for emergence. The national average cash price on Monday evening was $3.68 according to DTN, 30 1/2 cents better than this time last year. That put the national average basis at -34 cents, 2 3/4 cents stronger than a year ago. Argentina’s 18/19 crop is seen as rebounding to 40 MMT according to analysts with the country’s Maizar. They are still harvesting the 2017/18 crop at the moment.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $4.04 3/4, up 2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.13 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.23 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $4.31 1/4, up 2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended the day with most contracts 5 to 6 cents in the green. Soymeal was down $1.60/ton, with front month soy oil 9 points higher. The 5-day QPF is showing dryness expected for much of the central part of the Corn Belt. Parts of SW Minnesota and Northern IA are seen as wet over the next few days. The Northern part of the US (MI, MN, WI and the Dakotas) is the only area to show planting progress lagging for the most part. A trucker strike in Brazil is slowing the transport of soybeans to export terminals. A strike against Cargill in Argentina was halted by a government back to work order. Soaring inflation there and the sliding peso value are aggravating labor issues.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.30 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.35 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $10.42 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $377.50, down $1.60,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.51, up $0.09

Wheat

Wheat futures saw gains of 13 to 14 cents in the nearby HRW and SRW contracts, with HRS up 10 to 11 1/4 cents. For the most part the Southern Plains is expected to see little moisture over the next week. That coupled with dryness in other major exporting countries supported prices on Tuesday. The US dollar index was weaker on the day. Winter Wheat conditions in KS improved by 7 points over the past week, with OK steady and TX down 8. Spring wheat planting is now ahead or matching the average pace in MN, ND and SD, with the other states lagging. Japan is seeking 96,870 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly MOA tender due on Thursday. Of the total, 63,735 MT is sought from the US.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.40 1/2, up 14 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.33, up 11 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished steady to 42.5 cents higher on Tuesday, with nearby June down 2.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 22.5 cents in the green. The CME feeder cattle index was down 24 cents on May 21 at $133.41. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.47 at $229.35, with Select boxes $1.66 lower at $205.86. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 239,000 head through Tuesday. That is 3,000 head above last week and 4,000 head larger than this time last year. Tuesday afternoon’s USDA Cold Storage report indicated 471.545 million pounds of frozen beef stocks were in storage at the end of April. That was 2.86% larger than this time last year and up 1.63% from March. Analysts are expecting to see April feedlot placements at an average of 1.68 million head, which is 9.1% lower than the same month last year. The Cattle on Feed report is scheduled for Friday morning at 11 AM CDT.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $104.900, down $0.025,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $100.650, up $0.025,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $103.850, up $0.125,

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.950, up $0.025

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.725, up $0.225

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.800, up $0.125

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled the day with most contracts 15 cents to $1.725 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 62 cents from the previous day to $68.36 on May 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 4 cents at $76.14 Tuesday afternoon. Most primal cuts were higher, with the picnic and ham both reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was UNCH at $64.78 in the afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 915,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 5,000 head from last week but 35,000 above the same week in 2017. Frozen pork stocks at the end of April totaled 641.407 million pounds per the USDA Cold Storage report. That was 5% above March and 8.65% larger than April 2017. Belly stocks were seen at 64.563 million pounds, up 9% from March.

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $73.125, down $0.875,

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $75.125, down $1.725

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $74.350, down $1.700

Cotton

Cotton futures were down 25 to 60 points in most contracts on Tuesday. After gaining 5.5% in the past week, July was 107 points lower on profit taking. Texas was shown at 43% planted, with Georgia at 56% complete in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Next week’s report will show progress for squaring. China sold all 30,000 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Tuesday. The Cotlook A index was up 120 points from the previous day to 94.45 cents/lb on May 21.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 87.350, down 107 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 85.200, down 60 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 83.840, down 32 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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