AgriCharts Market Commentary


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Corn

Corn futures ended the week with losses of 3 1/4 to 5 1/2 cents, with July down 6.84% since last Friday. Friday’s Commitment of traders report showed spec funds adding back 35,896 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday, after last week’s reported huge shift. As of June 20 they had a net short position of -53,825 contracts in corn options and futures trading. In anticipation of next Friday’s Grain stocks report, analysts are expecting June 1 US corn stocks at 5.125 billion bushels, with a huge range of estimates from 4.685 to 5.36 bbu. That would be a 8.79% jump over June 2016 stocks. This Friday, China sold 1.171 MMT of the 2.235 MMT of corn from 2013 at an auction of state reserves. Chinese May corn imports shrank to 95% of last year’s May total at 42,219 MT.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.57 3/4, down 5 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.85, down 5 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed steady to 2 1/4 cents lower in the back months as July settled positive for the first time this week. On the week that contract lost 3.67%. July 17 soy meal was down 20 cents, with soy oil 6 points higher in the front month. A survey by Bloomberg shows traders projecting soybean stocks on June 1 to increase 12.73% yr/yr to 983 million bushels. Estimates ranged from 803 mbu to 1.119 bbu. The CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money had a net short position of -87,140 contracts in soybean futures and options trading. That is a 7,467 contract increase from the previous week. Data from Chinese customs shows that 9.586 MMT of soybeans were imported during May, up 25% from the previous May. Specifically, the imports from the US rose 66.2% yr/yr to 1.47 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.04 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.08 1/2, unch,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.09, down 3/4 cent,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.19, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $293.60, down $0.20,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $31.61, up $0.06

Wheat

Wheat futures posted losses in most of the KC and CBT contracts on Friday, as their respective July contracts were down on the week. MPLS was the firmest on the day, up 5 cents in the nearby contract as July was up 2.88% since last Friday.Spec traders in CBT futures and options posted their smallest reported net short position in 19 months of -20,971 on Tuesday, down 61,888 contracts. The Governor of North Dakota has declared a state of emergency in parts of the State that are experiencing extreme drought. Analysts are estimating June 1 US wheat stocks at 1.136 bbu, up from June 2016 at 976 mbu. The French AgriMer rated the country’s soft wheat crop at 68% good/excellent, down 6% from the previous week. Hot weather and low precipitation are harming the crop there. Bunge estimates that Argentina’s wheat production for 2017/18 will be 20MMT, with 13 MMT in exports, up 2.7 MMT from the previous year.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.59 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.64 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.61 1/4, up 5 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished with gains of 32.5 cents to $1 on Friday. Ahead of next Friday’s June contract expiration, cash trade fell a considerable amount this week to $119-$123. Feeder cattle futures were up $1.25 to $2.075 to end the week. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.09 on June 22 at $147.09. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes sharply lower, down $3.13 at $239.75. Select was down 20 cents, with an average of $216.72 Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 632,000 head, 4,000 head more than last week and 24,000 head more than the same week a year ago. This afternoon, the USDA authorized the grazing usage of CRP ground in the Dakotas and Montana, for D2 and D3 drought stricken areas. After the conclusion of the trading session the USDA Cattle on Feed report showed June 1 COF at 11.096 million head, up 2.7% from June 2016. May placements were 12.18% larger the last year at 2.119 million head, with 1.951 million head being marketed in May, up 8.75% from the year prior.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $119.200, up $0.575,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $115.275, up $1.000,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $112.425, up $0.425,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.950, up $1.500

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.400, up $1.425

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.700, up $1.250

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with most contracts in the red 12.5 cent to $1.225, as July was up 27.5 cents on Friday and $2.975 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/21 was up another $1.27 to $89.30. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.63 in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $101.15. All primals but the ham were higher. The national base hog carcass price was 29 cents lower with a weighted average of $85.85 in the afternoon report. FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,144,000 head through Saturday, 35,000 fewer than last week and 48,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $85.300, up $0.275,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $78.650, down $1.225

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $68.200, down $0.675

Cotton

Cotton futures finally saw green on Friday, as most contracts pulled out gains on the day. The new AWP is 64.60 cents/lb through next Thursday, a drop of 2.71 cents/lb from the previous week. The COT report indicated managed money lowering their net long position in cotton futures and options by 23,571 contracts to a net long position of 45,344 contracts.The Cotlook A index for June 22 dropped 40 points to 82.60 cents/lb. Customs data shows Chinese May imports were up a total of 8.56% since the previous May at 85,482 MT. Of that total 61.52% was from the US, as China May imports from the US rose 52.75% yr/yr.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 72.650, up 151 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 68.970, up 94 points

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.020, up 35 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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