AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures Mostly 1 Cent Lower

Corn futures are trading mostly a penny per bushel lower this morning. They closed the Wednesday session with most contracts firm to 3 1/4 cents higher. Average daily ethanol production dropped to 1.003 million barrels per day last week. That was down 20,000 bpd from the week prior and the slowest since early April. EIA ethanol stocks rose 739,000 barrels to 23.238 million barrels despite the lower production. USDA is expected to show new crop corn sales in a range of 0.9-1.3 MMT in this morning’s Export Sales report. That would be better than the 498,090 MT reported last week, with US FOB prices still relatively high (vs. South America) on the world market. USDA did report private daily export sales announcements of ~982,056 MT to Mexico during the week of 9/12.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 1 to 2 Lower, Awaiting Export Data

Soybeans futures are 1 to 2 cents lower ahead of the weekly Export Sales data. They ended Wednesday with 4 to 5 cent losses in the front months. Soybean meal was down $2.50/ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. Forecasts call for above normal temps and slightly higher than average precip for much of the Midwest via the 6-10-day forecast. Trade estimates for the USDA Export Sales report are running 700,000 to 1.1 MMT in 2019/20 soybean sales for the week that ended on 9/12. There was 138,000 MT reported for sales to Mexico, though it is unclear if the sales of ~720,000 MT to China (reported by news media last Thursday but not confirmed until later in the daily reporting system) will be reported for that week or the week ending 9/19. The US still has the cheapest FOB prices vs. the South American countries. Meal sales are seen at 50,000-450,000 MT, with soybean oil at 0-35,000 MT.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Mixed on Thursday Morning

Wheat futures are fractionally mixed in the CHI and MPLS contracts, with KC HRW as much as 2 cents lower. Wheat saw 4 to 7 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Preliminary open interest rose 2,286 contracts in Chicago, described as net new buying interest. Egypt’s GASC purchased 180,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender on Wednesday for late October delivery. No US offers were reported. USDA is expected to show US export bookings during the week of September 12 in a range of 300,000-600,000 MT. Algeria purchased a reported 600,000 MT of optional origin wheat on Wednesday, most likely French origin. Another purchase of 250,000 MT optional origin wheat by Turkey was also reported on Wednesday.

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Higher But Awaiting Cash Trade Development

Live cattle futures posted 35 cent to $1.025 gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were up a quarter to $1.25 on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 21 cents on September 17 at $137.33. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, with the Chc/Sel spread widening out to $26.27. Choice boxes were down $1.53 at $218.24, with Select boxes $1.94 lower @ $191.97. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 351,000 head. That is down 1,000 head from the same week last year and a 3,000 rise from the previous week. Wednesday morning’s FCE saw 281 head of the 1,229 offered in sales at $101 in KS and $101.25. Trade estimates for Friday’s COF report are for August placements to be down 6.3% from last year at 1.94 million head. Marketings are seen 1.7% lower at 1.95 million head.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog Futures Firmer Than Cash Market

Lean Hog futures settled 12.5 cents to $1.275 higher in most contracts on Wednesday. The cash side of the business is still weak. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 99 cents at $57.49 on September 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down a dime on Wednesday afternoon at $68.11. The national average base hog value was down 29 cents at $44.80 on Wednesday. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.463 million head through Wednesday. That was well above the same week in 2018 and 6,000 head above last week.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Mostly Higher Ahead of Export Sales Data

Cotton futures are 3 points lower in nearby October, but up as much as 28 points in the other months ahead of the weekly USDA export sales numbers. They were down 62 to 97 points in most contracts on Wednesday. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% (target range 1.75-2.0%) following their two-day meeting. The dollar rallied 320 points after the announcement in “sell the rumor, buy the fact” action. Crude oil was down another 1.9% on Wednesday, after the Saudis indicated that they would fill in missing crude oil production from reserves. The Cotlook A Index was up 5 points on September 17 at 73.70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, effective through Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
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F: 402-289-2353