AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn in the Red on Monday

Corn futures are trading 7 to 9 1/4 cents lower in most contracts on Monday. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 676,485 MT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on July 11. That was down 6.23% from last week and just above half of what was inspected for the same week last year. Another shipment of 51,075 MT of sorghum was headed to China. Trade expectations ahead of the Crop Progress report this afternoon are for corn condition ratings to either drop ~1% to 56% gd/ex or go up 1%! Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated money managers added 5,520 contracts to their net long position in the week that ended July 9, taking it to 187,168 contracts.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.45, down 9 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.50 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.57 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.59 3/4, down 7 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Lower at Midday

Soybean futures are showing 10 to 10 1/2 cent losses in the front months at midday. August soybean meal is down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 2 points lower. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed soybean exports of 854,373 MT for the week ending on July 11. That was a 12.17% jump from the previous week and 34% above the same week last year. Of that total 460,302 MT was headed to China. The monthly NOPA report indicated its members had crushed just 148.843 mbu of soybeans during June, well below analysts’ estimates. That was down 3.85% from May and a 6.53% drop from last June. Soy oil stocks came in just above the average trade estimate at 1.535 billion lb. The Crop Progress report for USDA is expected to show condition ratings steady from last week according to a Reuters poll. CFTC data showed spec funds in soybean futures and options adding 4,984 contracts to their net short position, at -41,934 contracts as of Tuesday.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $9.02 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $9.08 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.21, down 10 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.33, down 10 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $312.00, down $2.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.29, down $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Showing Double Digit Losses at Midday

Wheat futures are mostly 9 to 15 cents lower on Monday, tracking with corn. Weekly wheat shipments were reported at 315,373 MT for the week of July 11 via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was slightly above half of the previous week and down 34.45% from the same week in 2018. Analysts are expecting NASS to show 62% of the winter wheat crop harvested as of Sunday, which would be a 15% move from last week. Spring wheat ratings are seen steady vs. last week. Russia’s IKAR trimmed the country’s wheat production estimate by another 1 MMT to 77.5 MMT.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.08 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.52 1/4, down 15 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.32 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Lower on Monday

Live cattle futures are down 50 to 85 cents in most contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are down 20 to 60 cents at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was up another $1.49 @ $141.08 on July 11. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up 68 cents at $213.48 with Select boxes 13 cents lower @ $189.47. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 655,000 head through Saturday. That was 5,000 head above the same week last year. USDA reported a few $182-185 sales in the beef and $113.5-115 live in the North last week, with the South showing widespread trade of $112 on Friday.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $107.975, down $0.500,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.125, down $0.850,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.600, down $0.625,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.025, down $0.575

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.950, down $0.600

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.325, down $0.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Mixed on Monday

Lean Hog futures are mixed at midday, with front months lower and deferred contracts higher. July expires today. August was up 4.67% last week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 8 cents from the previous day @ $70.73 on July 11. The CME Fresh Bacon Index was down 60 cents from the week prior at 132.08 on July 12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 56 cents in the Monday AM report at $71.09. The national average base hog price was down $1.64 on Monday at $66.44. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.415 million head through Saturday. That was well above the same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs are at $70.750, down $0.300,

AUG 19 Hogs are at $80.150, down $0.500

OCT 19 Hogs are at $73.500, up $0.275

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher on Monday

Cotton futures are trading 17 to 79 points higher in most contracts on Monday after setting new life of contract lows last week. Tropical Storm Barry likely did some damage to Delta cotton, but results may not show up until next week due to the reporting schedule. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed spec funds pushing their record net short position to 41,727 contracts in the week that ended on 7/9, a bearish nudge of another 4,062 contracts. The Cotlook A index for July 12 was down 75 points from the previous day at 74.05 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 58.05 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.53, up 17 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.47, up 79 points

MAR 19 Cotton is at 64.42, up 68 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.27, up 59 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353