Overnight Markets and News
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.96%) this morning are up +0.66% on signs that U.S. and China trade talks are continuing despite the diplomatic rift over the arrest of a senior Chinese businesswoman. According to a statement from China's Ministry of Commerce, China's Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and trade representative Lighthizer spoke by phone this morning on the timetable and road map of future trade talks. U.S. automakers are set to move higher today on a report that China is moving toward cutting tariffs on cars made in the U.S. to 15% from the current 40%. European stocks are up +1,64% after German Dec ZEW investor confidence unexpectedly improved and as GBP/USD recovered from Monday's 1-1/2 year low and is up +0.41% as UK Prime Minister May is set to tour European capitals in an attempt to secure concessions on a Brexit deal she can sell to the UK Parliament. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -0.34%, Hong Kong +0.07%, China +0.37%, Taiwan +0.62%, Australia +0.42%, Singapore -0.43%,South Korea -0.25%, India +0.54%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed higher on signs of stronger credit growth in China last month and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low after Japan Nov machine tool orders fell by the most in 2-1/4 years.
Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH19 -0-090) are down -7.5 ticks.
The German Dec ZEW survey expectations of economic growth unexpectedly rose +6.6 to -17.5, stronger than expectations of -0.9 to -25.0.
China Nov new yuan loans were !.25 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.15 trillion yuan. Nov aggregate financing was 1.519 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.350 trillion yuan.
Japan Nov machine tool orders dropped -16.8% y/y, the steepest decline in 2-1/4 years.
U.S. Stock Preview
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Nov PPI final demand (expected unch m/m and +2.5% y/y, Oct +0.6% m/m and +2.9% y/y) and Nov PPI ex food & energy (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Oct +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y), (2) Treasury auctions $38 billion of 3-year T-notes.
Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Mercantil Bank Holding Corp (AMTB).
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Cowen Network and Cybersecurity Conference on Tue, Growth Marketing Conference on Tue, BMO Prescriptions for Success Healthcare Conference on Wed, Imperial Capital Security Investor Conference on Wed.
Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.96%) this morning are up +17.50 points (+0.66%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow Jones +0.14%, Nasdaq 100 +1.05%. The S&P 500 on Monday rebounded from an 8-month low and closed higher on signs of U.S. labor market strength after U.S. Oct JOLTS job openings rose +119,000 to 7.079 million, a bit stronger than expectations of +91,000 to 7.100 million. There was also strength in technology stocks led by a +3% jump in Facebook and a +2.6% rally in Microsoft. Stocks were undercut by Brexit concerns after UK Prime Minister May delayed a parliamentary Brexit vote and said she was preparing for a no-deal Brexit. There were also global economic concerns after China Nov exports rose a less-than-expected +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace in 8 months.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH19 -0-090) this morning are down -7.5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYH9 -2.00, FVH9 -1.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Monday fell back from a new contract high and closed lower on the sharp recovery in stocks from an 8-month low and supply pressures as the Treasury will auction $78 billion of T-notes and T-bonds this week. T-note prices were supported by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate sank to a 1-year low.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.33%) this morning is down -0.295 (-0.30%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.34%) is up +0.0038 (+0.33%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.16%) is down -0.17 (-0.15%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.704 (+0.73%), EUR/USD -0.0023 (-0.20%), USD/JPY +0.64 (+0.57%). The dollar index on Monday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on a plunge in GBP/USD to a 1-1/2 year low after UK Prime Minister May said she was stepping up preparation for a no Brexit deal. There was also weakness in EUR/USD after Eurozone Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected to a 4-year low.
Metals prices this morning are higher with Feb gold (GCG19 +0.38%) +3.4 (+0.27%), Mar silver (SIH19 +1.23%) +0.125 (+0.86%), and Mar copper (HGH19 +1.49%) +0.036 (+1.32%). Feb Comex gold (GCG19) on Monday closed down -3.2 (-0.26%) and Mar Comex silver (SIH19) closed down -0.091 (-0.62%). Feb gold on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-1/2 month high as a rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high weighed on metals prices. A slide in global equity markets had boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals and pushed Feb gold up to a 4-1/2 month high before dollar strength knocked prices lower. Another negative for gold was a decrease in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate dropped to a 1-year low, which curbs demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Silver also fell back on signs of weaker global demand for industrial metals after China Nov exports rose +5.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +9.4% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 8 months, and after China Nov imports rose +3.0% y/y, well below expectations of +14.0% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 2 years. Demand concerns have also spurred fund selling of silver as long silver positions in ETFs fell to a 5-1/4 month low Friday of 525.17 mln troy ounces.
Jan WTI crude oil prices (CLF19 +1.10%) this morning are up +55 cents (+1.08%) and Jan gasoline (RBF19 +0.97%) is up +1.68 cents (+1.18%). Jan WTI crude oil (CLF19) on Monday closed down by -$1.61 per barrel (-3.06%) and Feb Brent crude (CBG19) closed down -$1.91 (-3.10%). Jan RBOB gasoline (RBF19) closed down by -6.69 cents per gallon (-4.50%). A rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high Monday weighed on the energy complex along with global energy demand concerns. Weaker-than-expected Nov trade data from China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, is negative for fuel demand after China Nov exports rose +5.4% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 8 months, and China Nov imports rose +3.0% y/y, the slowest pace of increase in 2 years. Also, Japan Q3 GDP was revised downward to a decline of -2.5% (q/q annualized) from -2.0%, the weakest pace of growth in 4 years. In addition, confidence in Eurozone economic growth took a hit after Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected by -9.1 points to -0.3, a 4-year low.
Overnight U.S. Stock Movers
Palo Alto Networks (PANW +2.37%) was reinstated with a 'Buy' rating at Guggenheim Securities with a price target of $256.
AT&T (T -0.76%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citigroup with a price target of $34.
Eastman Chemical (EMN -0.66%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Stifel with a price target of $95.
CyberArk Software Ltd. (CYBR +1.62%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Guggenheim Securities with a price target of $86.
Autoliv (ALV -3.13%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a price target of $105.
Casey's General Stores (CASY -1.48%) lost almost 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 same-store grocery sales rose +2.7%, less than consensus of +3.1%.
NetApp (NTAP +1.93%) was rated a new 'Underperform' at Cowen with a price target of $53.
Stitch Fix (SFIX -1.48%) dropped 7% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $8 million to $12 million, weaker than consensus of $12.8 million.
CalAmp (CAMP -1.28%) slid 5% in after-hours trading after it cut its Q3 adjusted EPS forecast to 23 cents to 25 cents from a Sep 27 estimate of 29 cents to 35 cents.
Quanex Building Products (NX -0.64%) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 net sales of $244.1 million, weaker than consensus of $248 million, and then forecast full-year adjusted Ebitda of $97 million to $107 million, the midpoint below consensus of $106.7 million.
Delphi Technologies Plc (DLPH -3.13%) was rated a new 'Underweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a price target of $13.
Ra Pharmaceuticals (RARX +7.05%) lost 3% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer $100 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.
Adient Plc (ADNT -5.19%) was rated a new 'Underweight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a price target of $18.