Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Friday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher after a week of losses. Since last Friday, Sep has dropped 5.17%. Spillover buying from soybeans and wheat was supportive, along with Fed easing talk. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. Commercials were net short 522,525 contracts on that date, nearing a record number of short positions (1.134 million). Safras & Mercado expect the 19/20 Brazilian corn crop to total 103.97 MMT.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.30 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.35 3/4, up 6 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.44, up 5 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.48, up 5 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures saw 20 1/4 cent gains in the front months on Friday. That parred back losses from the other 4 trade session this week, as Aug was down just 1.29% this week. August soybean meal was up $4.20/ton, with soy oil up 46 points. A report from Reuters shows lower Brazilian crop quality this year with some Chinese business at risk. Rumors of improvements in the Trade War also gave the buying some fuel. After the close, President Trump stated US Treasury Sec had a “very good talk” with China over the phone this week. Estimates from Safras & Mercado show expected 19/20 soybean production in Brazil at a record 123.788 MMT, with acreage seen up 0.8% from last year. This afternoon’s CFTC report indicated money managers in soybean futures and options backing off their net short position by 2,999 contracts to -38,935 contracts.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $9.01 1/2, up 20 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $9.07 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.31 3/4, up 20 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $311.20, up $4.20,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.10, up $0.46

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 9 cents higher. Shorts took some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. Over the course of the week CBT lost 3.92%, with KC 5.83% and MPLS 2.3% lower. CFTC data showed specs in KC wheat trimmed 1,649 contracts from their net short position to 16,156 contracts. In CBT wheat they cut 11,623 contracts from that net long position to 18,751 contracts. They showed a record net short position in MPLS wheat on Tuesday at -13,027 contracts. The French wheat harvest is now 33% complete, a 24% move over the past week. The French crop has been stressed by hot and dry temps, with yield estimates declining.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.02 1/2, up 9 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.40, up 7 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.29 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures posted 20 to 77.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 55 cents. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.33 @ $138.67 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon with Choice boxes up 8 cents per cwt at $213.42 and Select boxes 90 cents higher @ $189.51. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade this week has been around $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North. After 11 weeks of liquidation, managed money added back 3,690 contracts to their net long position at 25,443 contracts on Tuesday.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $107.600, up $0.200,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $108.500, up $0.250,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.175, up $0.375,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.975, up $0.550

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.800, up $0.325

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.025, up $0.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $2.025 gains in most contract on Friday, as Aug was up 4% this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another $1.93 at $78.53. The picnic and butt were the only primals lower. The national average base hog value was up 79 cents on Friday at $72.48. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter is 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from last week and 75,000 head below than the same week last year on lighter Saturday slaughter.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $83.875, up $1.100,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $78.925, up $2.025

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $76.750, up $1.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were up 104 to 152 points in most contracts on Friday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record reported net short position for spec traders in cotton futures and options on Tuesday at 44,270 contracts. Upland cotton export commitments are now 115% of the USDA projection, with the average pace running 107%. With just under a month left in the MY, however, accumulated exports are 91% of that number, with the normal pace at 95%. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 50 points from the previous day at 73.70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through next Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 62.3, up 152 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.06, up 135 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 63.94, up 106 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.01, up 104 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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