Grain Spreads: July25/Dec25 Corn
Please join me every Thursday at 3pm for a free grain webinar. We discuss supply, demand, weather, and the charts. Sign Up Now
Commentary
In my opinion today’s corn market was driven by the volume in the old crop/new crop calendar spreads. July25/Dec 25 got hit hard today on an increase of volume and open interest (37K) that was up from the Friday and Tuesday sessions that encircled this past holiday weekend. It was also estimated that at least 20,000 contracts were sold by the spec sector today. Corn plantings data didn’t disappoint with 87% of the crop in the ground vs 88% expected and vs 85% the average. However good to excellent ratings came up short at 68% vs 73% expected and vs 72%, the 5-year average. It was the eastern corn belt, Atlantic States, and Upper Plains that pulled the national average down in my opinion. Keep in mind that these ratings are very subjective with abrupt changes coming in a NY minute. Despite old crop ending stocks being drawn down in each USDA monthly WASDE report off of strong demand, a big crop keeps getting bigger coming out of South America. Brazilian harvest once it begins in earnest could create more competition for global export. As of now, Brazil is looking at a bumper secondary corn crop. That has the potential to keep a lid on any old crop corn rally in my view, while the unknown is still the new crop being planted. That is one reason why I believe, the July25/Dec25 corn crop might possibly trade back down to a carry and in my opinion will take-out near-term lows. July/Dec corn chart below.
Trade Ideas
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
Risk/Reward
Futures-N/A
Options-N/A
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list Sign Up Now
Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
312 957 8103
888 391 7894 toll free
312 256 0109 fax
Walsh Trading
311 S Wacker Drive Suite 540
Chicago, Il 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices.PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.